The types of VFX jobs most likely to be eliminated by AI by 2027 are in countries with a lower cost of labor, like India. Elsewhere, AI tools are more likely to increase productivity than eliminate jobs.

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While the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2023 WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes brought the VFX industry to a standstill, the structure of the global market for VFX work remained largely intact. AI promises to be a different type of disruptor -- one that will impact certain types of jobs more rapidly in the short term than others. This will change where VFX work is performed, as well as the companies performing it.

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The Majority of VFX Jobs Eliminated by AI in the Next 3 Years are in India

AI is good at identifying complex patterns that can’t be described by simple rules – for example, detecting the edge of shapes in a moving image. This, along with the relatively discrete and non-subjective nature of the tasks, makes Rotoscoping, Paint and Matchmove the VFX jobs most likely to be eliminated by AI in the next 3 years.

Supervisors in LA, Vancouver and London will start to find it more efficient to keep this type of work in-house -- the effort required to run tasks through an AI tool won’t be any greater than working with an overseas team, and it avoids the hassle of sending out the work. The pace at which AI tools will accelerate this work seems likely to outpace any growth in demand.

Today, most Roto, Paint and Matchmove jobs are in countries with a lower cost of labor, such as India. The disruption to VFX jobs caused by AI will surely be felt sooner there than in North America, the UK and Europe -- both by domestic companies for whom this work is their core offering, and global visual effects studios that have invested in building capacity overseas to improve their margins.

Few VFX Jobs in North America, the UK and Europe Will Be Eliminated by AI in the Next 3 Years

The VFX industry has been experimenting with AI for sometime. It’s often referred to as Machine Learning or ML, appropriately for many of today’s use cases. AI / ML should make smart edge detection tools smarter, accelerating some of the more laborious tasks performed by Compositors. Texture, Look Development, and Concept Artists should all find generative AI tools helpful.

Does this mean there will be fewer of these VFX jobs in 3 years’ time? The Hollywood clients who keep VFX studios in business demand the highest quality possible for their money. Thanks to AI tools, some clients will be able to get the same quality for less money. Others will prefer better quality for the same money, or – a possibility that rarely gets mentioned – even better quality for more money. Quantity is a factor too - some projects will use visual effects more heavily than their budgets would have allowed prior to efficiencies achieved with AI.

Pretty much every job in VFX is a candidate for using AI / ML to accelerate specific steps in their workflow. Over the next 3 years, though, these increases in productivity will be offset by increases in the quality or volume of content being produced by VFX studios in North America, the UK and Europe.

AI will Make Smaller VFX Studios Even More Capable Over the Next 3 Years

Generalists working at smaller studios have a great deal to gain from the advance of AI tools. These artists are asked to deliver a level of quality approaching that produced by teams of specialists at larger studios. Generalists also tend to have more flexibility in how they work, making them ideal early adopters. Off-the-shelf AI tools will enable them to take on tasks that previously required bringing in a specialist, such as advanced facial rigging and cloth simulation.

Clients will be able to send a broader range of work to small studios, where overhead costs are significantly lower than their larger competitors. This has been a consistent trend since 3D software first became commercially available in the 1990s, and it was no longer necessary to support an in-house R&D team to produce VFX for Hollywood. At the same time, the larger studios continue to push the envelope of complexity and scale at the high end of the market. There will be plenty of work for specialists too.